香港六合彩

United Nations member states including the US, France, Germany, Albania and Rwanda will submit a resolution to the general assembly on April 17 which could have significant implications for the future of the Western Balkans. The vote will call on the UN to declare July 11 the 鈥淚nternational Day of Reflection and Remembrance of the 1995 Srebrenica Genocide鈥�. It鈥檚 significant, because the issue of the massacre of 8,000 Bosniak Muslim men at Srebrenica remains a bitterly contested memory in the region.听

The move has prompted fears that it will lead to a break-up of Bosnia and Herzegovina. After the war which followed the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, the Dayton Accords peace deal established Bosnia and Herzegovina as a federation of two separate entities: the Serbian Republika Srpska, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.听

The three main ethnic groups 鈥� Bosniaks, Serbians and Croats 鈥� are represented by a rotating presidency. Currently, the chairman of the presidency is Zeljko Komsic, a pro-EU Croat politician.听

The UN resolution plan has been strongly opposed by Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska. He reportedly stated on a visit to Belgrade in neighbouring Serbia that 鈥淏osnia and Herzegovina may not survive鈥� if the resolution is passed. The Serbian president, Aleksandar Vu膷i膰, has urged Russia and China to vote against it.听

Vulnerable to malign influence听

It is this instability in the Western Balkans as a whole that is focusing minds in the European Union, given the tensions in the region following Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine. The EU opened accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 12. It laid out minimum requirements on progress in implementing the 14 key priorities that were set out in the European Commission鈥檚 opinion in 2019, concerning the country鈥檚 candidacy for EU membership.听

Bosnia and Herzegovina was identified as the most vulnerable country in the Western Balkans by a 鈥減ermeability index鈥� developed by Nato in 2020. The report said: 鈥淭he deep divisions between Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (the two constituent entities) is evident in the lack of clarity over the country鈥檚 strategic orientation.鈥� It added that the two entities were deeply split over issues such as Nato and EU membership, with ethnic Serbs bitterly opposed to both.听

Meanwhile, Russia is known to have engaged in a range of disinformation operations and cyberattacks across the Western Balkans since before it invaded Ukraine in 2022. It has sought to influence media there through outlets such as the Sputnik Srbija news service in Serbia, an outpost of Russian state media. Russia Today (RT), widely recognised as a Kremlin mouthpiece, launched services in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina at the end of 2023.听

Both Sputnik Srbija and RT have the potential to reach a large audience in the Western Balkans, and are used for spreading Kremlin narratives against the EU and Nato. Their content is frequently republished in regional media.听

Separatist sentiment on the rise

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Dodik has stirred up separatist sentiment. He ignored the constitutional court鈥檚 ban on the January 9 annual celebration of the foundation of Republika Srpska, and blocked Bosnia and Herzegovina from joining the EU sanctions against Russia.听

Dodik has also threatened to take Republika Srpska out of Bosnia if the new UN resolution is adopted, denying that the genocide had ever happened.听

The West sees Dodik鈥檚 nationalist aspirations as a major threat to the 1995 Dayton Accords. In January 2022, the US imposed sanctions on him, stating: 鈥淒odik鈥檚 actions threaten Bosnia鈥檚 stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity and undermine the Dayton Peace Accords, thereby risking wider regional instability.鈥澨�

The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, published by the US intelligence community on February 5, suggested that nationalist leaders in the Western Balkans are highly likely to escalate ethnic tensions in an effort to destabilise the region.听

Meanwhile in Kosovo听

The delicacy of the situation in the Western Balkans should be seen in the context of last September鈥檚 attack by Serbian nationalists on the village of Banjska in northern Kosovo.听

Kosovo formally applied for EU membership in December 2022, but simmering conflict involving ethnic Serbians in the north, stoked by Belgrade 鈥� such as the attack on Banjska 鈥� is complicating the accession process. The other major obstacle to Kosovo鈥檚 EU accession is the fact that several EU member states 鈥� Spain, Slovakia, Cyprus, Romania and Greece 鈥� have yet to recognise Kosovan statehood. This has effectively blocked the country from joining the EU and Nato.听

Significantly, the Council of Europe will vote on April 18 on Kosovo鈥檚 application to join, following a recommendation from the Council鈥檚 Committee on Political Affairs and Democracy. Vu膷i膰 has threatened that Serbia will leave the council if it votes to admit Kosovo.听

The West 鈥� as in Nato and the EU 鈥� clearly wants to promote more stability and reconciliation in the Western Balkans, in light of Russia鈥檚 aggression in Ukraine and fears of its further territorial ambition. But if this is the case, then its treaty organisations need to unify with respect to the future membership of both Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.听

In doing so, it must treat Vu膷i膰鈥檚 most recent threats towards Kosovo with the same gravity with which it appears to regard Dodik鈥檚 secession threats in Bosnia and Herzegovina.听

With the war in Ukraine at such a critical point, the last thing the West needs is further destabilisation and even possible secession of parts of Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the possibility for violence that this presents. You鈥檇 have to imagine that, as he sits in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is anticipating this possibility with great relish.听

This article was originally published in听听on 16听April 2024.

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