香港六合彩

The latest UN report on the potential impacts of climate change gives a听grim verdict, with some effects now deemed unavoidable. But there are also lessons on disasters and violent conflicts which could help save lives and create safer societies regardless of human-caused climate change.

The main available text of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on 鈥淚mpacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability鈥� is a 35-page听Summary for Policy Makers, which by IPCC rules, is approved by member state governments.

IPCC scientists are appointed by member states and these contributing researchers do not produce new science. They summarise the tens of thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers on climate change since the previous assessment (the last major IPCC report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities was听published in 2014).

The scientists then receive thousands of review comments on drafts requiring textual revisions or responses. In making a series of statements on our understanding of climate change, the report assigns confidence levels such as 鈥渓ow鈥� or 鈥渧ery high鈥� to indicate how certain the authors are of each one.

The current report has been overshadowed by Ukrainian scientists听having to leave the approval session听to take care of themselves and their families during Russia鈥檚 invasion of their country. Nonetheless, around 90 scientists from all inhabited continents and balanced between women and men drafted the document. As frequently occurs, reports emerged of听political pushes to remove scientific content听which emphasises the political nature of the material.

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As an academic who researches听disasters and health, I was particularly interested in how the report examined climate change as a cause of disasters, including violent conflicts, and set out actions to avoid them.

The IPCC鈥檚 summary entirely avoids the phrase 鈥渘atural disaster鈥�. This reflects听decades of work听explaining that听disasters are caused听by sources of vulnerability 鈥� such as unequal and inequitable access to essential services like healthcare or poorly designed or built infrastructure like power plants 鈥� rather than by the climate or other听environmental influences.

The report states, with high confidence, that 鈥渃limate change is contributing to humanitarian crises where climate hazards interact with high vulnerability鈥�. In other words, vulnerability must exist before a crisis can emerge. Climate change is not the root cause of disaster. The report explains that places with 鈥減overty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods鈥� are听more vulnerable听to climate change impacts.
For example, cyclones still lead to disasters in Bangladesh. Nevertheless, the country has substantially reduced deaths and damage through concerted efforts听to reduce vulnerabilities. These include building thousands of storm shelters and issuing early warnings by multiple means. These measures have made cyclones less deadly even as the storms have听become more intense听due to climate change.

Weather disasters which kill more people tend to occur where communities and infrastructure are more vulnerable, according to the report. Heat is rightly highlighted as听a major concern, since it causes crops to fail and forces people to halt work. That said, it is surprising that the听health impacts of humidity, which can combine with extreme heat to deadly effect, are not mentioned.

The report explains that disaster risk and impacts can be reduced by tackling fundamental issues which cause vulnerability, no matter what the weather and climate do. It places high confidence in risk management, risk sharing, and warning strategies as key tasks for adapting to climate change.

As with disasters, the report cannot attribute violent conflict to climate change. With high confidence, the report states that 鈥渃ompared to other socioeconomic factors the influence of climate on conflict is assessed as relatively weak鈥�. This corroborates other research which argues peace and conflict are more determined by听social and political factors听than by climate or weather.

The authors identify, with high confidence, actions to reduce the 鈥渦nderlying vulnerabilities鈥� which raise the risk of violent conflict. These can be听based on research听and might include redistributing wealth and resources to make societies more equal and equitable, while providing diverse livelihoods. Adapting to climate change is only part of the solution. Scientific analyses note how听development, rather than climate change adaptation only, is the most effective overall.

In fact, despite frequent assumptions that climate change caused or was linked to violent conflicts in the past, the summary implies that no single conflict should be attributed to climate change, natural or anthropogenic. This conclusion matches analyses for听Darfur听in 2003 and听Syria听in 2011.

The IPCC鈥檚 press release on the new report was headlined 鈥淐limate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet鈥�. Its stark opening detailed 鈥渄angerous and widespread disruption鈥�. Yet its subtitle, 鈥淭aking action now can secure our future,鈥� needs emphasising. This is particularly the case for disasters and violent conflicts which, the summary document states with high confidence, are not significantly influenced by human-caused climate change.

Perhaps the press release mentions neither disasters nor violent conflict because they represent comparatively positive news among the bleakness. Ultimately, 鈥渢aking action now鈥� means applying听the science of disasters and conflict听for prevention. Then, we save lives and livelihoods, no matter what climate change does.

This article first appeared in on 28^th February 2022.

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• 香港六合彩 Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction
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