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Q: Whatever the final vote count, what does the closeness of the race mean to the dynamics within the Democratic Party and the authority of Biden鈥檚 leadership of it?

When it comes to governing, mandates matter. Even if Biden ekes out a win, he will enter the White House knowing that nearly half of all American voters supported another candidate. That surely weakens Biden鈥檚 bargaining position with Republicans on Capitol Hill. Less appreciated, however, is that it could also reduce Biden鈥檚 strength within his own party.

If there鈥檚 one take-away from the primary season, it鈥檚 that the Democratic Party is riven by major policy divisions between moderates and progressives. Although some of those divides were suppressed in the lead-up to election day, they haven鈥檛 disappeared.

If Biden鈥檚 win is seen as less than decisive, progressive Democrats could try to exploit that result to undermine Biden鈥檚 efforts to govern from the centre. Biden says that he will stand up against the far left flank of his party. But pressure to make concessions may be greater than if he鈥檇 had won in a landslide.

Q: What does the closeness of the race mean for Trump鈥檚 ongoing position within the Republican party?

Even if Trump can鈥檛 pull out a win, the closeness of the election points to a clear take-away: support for Trump within the Republican Party remains strong. That makes it hard for critics to write off Trump鈥檚 success in 2016 as a fluke. It also means that, regardless of the Republican Party鈥檚 future, it鈥檚 likely to maintain some non-trivial 鈥淭rumpian鈥� elements.

Many conservative 鈥渘ever-Trumpers鈥� hoped that a resounding Trump loss would force the party to rethink its current trajectory. That resounding loss didn鈥檛 happen. So, while it鈥檚 possible the Republican Party could snap back to its former self and ask 鈥淭rump who?鈥� as soon the president leaves the Oval Office, that prospect looks less likely now.

Trump鈥檚 appeal, and particularly his acumen for exciting the Republican base, can鈥檛 be ignored by Republicans 鈥� including many members of Congress who just got re-elected by running on pro-Trump platforms.

Q: Voter turnout has broken records in the 2020 election. But what does the popular vote margin for both candidates reveal about how divided America still is?

America is divided. That much is clear. It鈥檚 not just divided on issues 鈥� about how to tackle climate change, what marginal tax rates should be, and what stance the government should take on US-China trade. It鈥檚 divided about the meaning of America itself.

The record high turnout that we witnessed is likely to be evidence of both sides subscribing to the view of 2020 being the most consequential election of our lifetime. On the left, voters saw Trump not just as wrong about policies, but as an existential threat to the nation鈥檚 institutions. On the right, voters saw Biden not just as misguided on issues, but as emblematic of a drift toward socialism.

One silver lining of 2020 is that it has alerted more Americans to the value of civic engagement. But it鈥檚 hard not to think that 鈥� at least on some level 鈥� record high turnout is symptomatic of many citizens simply sensing there鈥檚 something ailing American democracy.

Q: It鈥檚 looking likely that whoever is elected may not control both the House and the Senate. How difficult will it be for him to govern?

Divided government always implies gridlock. Yet it doesn鈥檛 mean the gears of policymaking in Washington totally grind to a halt. Presidents are generally less constrained by Congress in foreign policy compared to domestic policy. If elected, for example, Biden could re-engage the US with the Paris Climate Agreement, rejoin the Iran nuclear deal, or roll back the trade war with China.

Increasingly, presidents have also turned to executive orders to push through their agendas in the face of Congressional resistance. During his term, Trump signed a number of executive orders to enact reforms over homeland security, healthcare, the environment, and other issues.

Although executive orders are more easily overturned, their effects can be significant. Biden, for example, has said that he would use an executive order to implement a national mask mandate amid Covid-19.

This article was originally published in听on Thursday 5 November, 2020.听

尝颈苍办蝉听

• Original article in听
• 香港六合彩 Centre on US Politics
• 香港六合彩 Political Science
• 香港六合彩 Faculty of Social & Historical Sciences