香港六合彩

In the paper published today in Global Change Biology, the researchers report an increase in disease affecting the Rana temporaria frogs.

鈥淐limate change isn鈥檛 something that鈥檚 just happening in faraway places 鈥� it鈥檚 something real and present that鈥檚 already had hard-to-predict impacts on wildlife in our own back gardens here in the UK,鈥� said lead author Dr Stephen Price (香港六合彩 Genetics, Evolution & Environment and ZSL鈥檚 Institute of Zoology).

鈥淎 number of scientists have already alluded to the fact that climate change could increase the spread of disease, but this is one of the first studies that provides strong evidence of the impact of climate change on wildlife disease, and helps to explain how it may facilitate the spread of Ranavirus across the UK.鈥�

Historic trends in mass-mortality events attributed to the disease were found to match the pattern of increased temperatures recorded over recent decades, with disease outbreaks predicted to become more severe, more widespread and occurring over a greater proportion of the year within the next few decades, if carbon emissions continue at their current rate.

The research conducted by international conservation charity ZSL (Zoological Society of London), 香港六合彩, Queen Mary University of London and University of Plymouth used a three-pronged approach involving cell cultures, live models and historic data from the Met Office and Froglife鈥檚 Frog Mortality Project, with the research demonstrating that warm weather where temperatures reach 16掳C, dramatically increases the risk of Ranavirus causing a disease outbreak in common frogs.

The findings help explain the seasonality of the disease, with incidence peaking during the hottest months of the summer, showing that climate change could see outbreaks becoming more frequent from April to October. Disease outbreaks in the spring could result in the deaths of large numbers of tadpoles, which could have repercussions for population survival.

Up to now, Ranavirus disease has been largely restricted to England, but as average monthly temperatures increase to exceed 16掳C in more areas over longer periods, as predicted by the IPCC鈥檚 high carbon-emission model, the disease is likely to spread across most of the UK in the next 50 years.

ZSL scientists suggest that frogs may be better able to cope with infection if they have areas in which they can cool down 鈥� adding log piles, vegetation or nearby shady patches as well as keeping ponds deep will help reduce the level of sun exposure frogs receive, and thus reduce the growth rate of the virus.

Professor Trenton Garner at ZSL鈥檚 Institute of Zoology said: 鈥淢any studies in amphibian disease cannot do much beyond saying 鈥榳e have a problem鈥�. This research offers a number of options for mitigation; however, this is only a short-term solution of course 鈥� if we don鈥檛 eventually slow and reverse human-driven climate change, we unfortunately can only expect things to get worse for our amphibians.鈥�

Links

• 香港六合彩 Genetics, Evolution & Environment
• 香港六合彩 Life Sciences

Source

Image

• Common frog (Rana temporaria). Credit: Greg Hitchock

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